Oscar Predictions

Alright, true, I haven't updated this in ages. But, with hours to go, I want to make sure I get these down.  Tradition is tradition after all, and I am, if nothing else, a man of routine.  

Should Win
Will Win

Best picture
This was hard. Harder than it has been in years. My heart wants 'Inception', it really does. I'm going to jump if it wins.  "Kings Speech" however, is Oscar material if ever there was such a thing.  A fantastic script, fantastic performances, it was beautifully directed, and has just the right subject. "Black Swan" I'm also ok with winning. "Social Network" is great, but over-hyped, I won't grumble too much if it walks away with it...but I think we have stronger choices on this ridiculously long list.

• "Black Swan"

• "The Fighter"

• "Inception"

• "The Kids Are All Right"

• "The King’s Speech"

• "127 Hours"

• "The Social Network"

• "Toy Story 3"

• "True Grit"

• "Winter’s Bone"

Director
It isn't easy for me to vote against my two favorite directors, but I think Joel and Ethan will agree "True Grit" wasn't quite what they hoped it would be. Very rarely does Best Picture and Best Director differ...this year I'm hoping for an exception to the unwritten rule. I do think "King's Speech" is wonderful, and wonderfully directed...but "Black Swan" is just gorgeous, it moves like a ballet. It kept me engaged the entire time, and I found it very simple to understand. To all the confused Facebook statuses...pay attention, you won't have this problem. Hopper is deserving, but I feel Aronofsky directed this film the way Pollock painted, and I thank those of you who can see what i mean by that.

• Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"

• David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

• Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"

• David Fincher, "The Social Network"

• Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "True Grit"
• 
  
• Actor

Alright, I debated this one for a long time.  It had some added difficulty in my missing out on both 'Biutiful' and '127 Hours'. It isn't that I don't think Firth deserves to win, because he does...but something very interesting happened inside Eisenberg while I watched his performance. He did some great work, and I think that closing shot of 'The Social Network' won me over. Although, I secretly hope Bridges wins.  He did a great job, although not quite out of his box, but I'd love to see him take two things home: Back-To-Back Best Actors, and join John Wayne in becoming the first two Actors to win Best Actor for playing the same role.

• Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"

• Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"

• Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

• Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

• James Franco, "127 Hours"

Actress
We're not in Naboo anymore, Padme. Portman was not just impressive, she was educating. She brought an incredible aspect of originality to the 'deterioration role'. Something tells me she'll be making a few more trips up Oscar's steps before all is said and done.

• Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"

• Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

• Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"

• Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"

• Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

Supporting actor
He has it in the bag, as far as I am concerned. Rush is equally deserving and I'd be happy to see him take the stage, the same is true for Ruffalo, but ultimately I have to judge this category based on my gut feeling I get when I see great acting: "I can be better." Mr. Bale, thank you for the reminder.

• Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

• John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"

• Jeremy Renner, "The Town"

• Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

• Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

Supporting actress
There's a lot to be learned from Miss Steinfeld's performance in "True Grit".  I was legitimately impressed with her, and I think she is only nominated under supporting Actress so she has a chance to go home with it, since she is one-hundred percent the lead character of the film.  Unfortunately, I fear that the type of role that Meissa Leo played in "The Fighter" will prevail. Don't get me wrong, she and Amy Adams both deserve it, they did great work...but all things considered, my vote would have gone to Hailee. And, although I was impressed by Carter in "the King's Speech", I think that is simply because she was actually acting in this movie rather than her playing her usual role of 'crazy chick'. After all, there's a fair chance that's just what she is like in real life. I mean, look at who she married.

• Amy Adams, "The Fighter"

• Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"

• Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

• Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

• Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

Animated feature
What can be said about 'Toy Story 3" that hasn't already been said? there's a reason it is up for Best Picture and the others are not. Never before have I cried at three separate and distinct moments in a film.  A beautiful, beautiful work of art, I'm sure I won't be disappointed. 

• "How to Train Your Dragon"

• "The Illusionist"

• "Toy Story 3"

Adapted screenplay
Lets be real, this film won the category the minute Aaron Sorkin signed the contract. This film has a phenomenal script. I was very worried going into the film that Sorkin wouldn't be able to pull off dialogue for a younger generation...I was so wrong, and never been more happy about it.

• "127 Hours"

• "The Social Network"

• "Toy Story 3"

• "True Grit"

• "Winter’s Bone"

Original screenplay
I. Will. Be. Furious. This one of the few categories I'm really passionate about this year. Lately I've been hearing a lot of criticisms  about 'Inception'. I find it all ridiculous. Nolan, I'm able to see the decade of work you put into this script, and it all payed off. One of, if not the most original script of the last two decades. I payed $17 to see it the first time, and I was ready to lay another $17 as soon as the credits were over.  I love this film. Best of luck.

• "Another Year"

• "The Fighter"

• "Inception"

• "The Kids Are All Right"

• "The King’s Speech"

Art direction
Unfortunately, the last I checked the world still seems to enjoy Tim Burton's masturbatory ways of 'crazy design'. The actual original works listed below, I fear, will be out-voted. 

• "Alice in Wonderland"

• "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I"

• "Inception"

• "The King's Speech"

• "True Grit"

Cinematography
Roger Deakins is long overdue. This is his category, and I will be outraged if he is robbed once again.  "True Grit" may not be as visually stunning as "No Country For Old Men" was, but it sure as hell blows this category away.

• “Black Swan”

• “Inception”

• “The King's Speech”

• “The Social Network”

• “True Grit”

Costume design
See my note about Burton under 'Art Direction'

• "Alice in Wonderland"

• "I Am Love"

• "The King's Speech"

• "The Tempest"

• "True Grit"

Film editing

• "Black Swan"

• "The Fighter"

• "The King's Speech"

• "127 Hours"

• "The Social Network"

Original score

• “How to Train Your Dragon”

• “Inception”

• “The King's Speech”

• “127 Hours”

• “The Social Network”

Visual effects
See note about Burton above.

• “Alice in Wonderland”

• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”

• “Hereafter”

• “Inception”

• “Iron Man 2”

Original song

• “Coming Home” from “Country Strong”

• “I See the Light” from “Tangled”

• “If I Rise” from “127 Hours”

• “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3"

Sound editing

• "Inception"

• "Toy Story 3"

• "Tron: Legacy"

• "True Grit"

• "Unstoppable"

There you have it, bring on my critics. I don't have nearly the drive behind a Best Picture this year that I have had in the past, so I'm hoping to not be too infuriated by the time I go to sleep.